In the midst of its longest losing streak in eight years, Virginia will once again look to get back on track in another ACC rematch, as the Cavaliers travel to take on Louisville on Saturday afternoon just two weeks after these two teams first played back in Charlottesville.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Louisville, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Saturday's matchup.
Pat Kelsey continues to impress in his first year as Louisville's head coach. The Cardinals are well on their way to doubling their win total from last season and are in good position for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019. Since losing a tough 93-85 rivalry game on the road at Kentucky in mid-December, Louisville has won seven-consecutive games against Florida State, Eastern Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. The last two wins came on the road, as the Cards beat a good Pitt team 82-78 and then crushed Syracuse by 24 points.
What happened in that first meeting with Virginia? Well, it was another one of those "UVA keeps it close in the first half only to get blown out in the second half" games. It was a five-point spread at halftime and then the Cardinals outscored the Cavaliers 38-23 the rest of the way en route to a 20-point win, the first-ever victory for Louisville at John Paul Jones Arena. Reyne Smith came off the bench and scored 15 points on all threes and three other Cardinals scored in double figures as well. Aboubacar Traore had 15 points and eight rebounds and Chucky Hepburn, though he had a rough shooting day going 3/10 from the floor and 0/3 from downtown, was still effective with 10 points and seven assists to just one turnover.
Louisville crushed Virginia on the glass 42-25 and in the paint 36-18, but the bench points were where things got really out of hand, as the Cardinal bench outscored UVA's bench 34-2. It was a cold shooting night for Virginia, going 5/26 from beyond the arc. Louisville hit more threes on seven fewer attempts. Isaac McKneely and Andrew Rohde combined to go 5/12 from three, while the rest of the team went 0/14. Contrast that with UVA's most recent game against SMU in which McKneely and Rohde combined to go 0/12 from three-point range.
There aren't many statistical categories in which Louisville jumps off the page and the team doesn't have an elite scorer to carry the offensive load. The Cardinals are just well-coached and well-balanced with four players averaging in double figures. That recipe has Louisville sitting pretty at 6-1 in the ACC and trailing only Duke in terms of conference record and active win streak.
Two teams trending in opposite directions
Virginia has lost four games in a row for the first time since Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome's freshman year and is in danger of being one of those three unfortunate teams to miss the ACC Tournament. Louisville is on a seven-game winning streak and occupies second place in the ACC standings. You can also add that the Cardinals have lots of experience in close games and have won a few of them this season as compared to the Cavaliers, who just squandered a late lead and fell on a buzzer-beating three to SMU. These two teams are headed in opposite directions and I don't see those trends reversing course on Saturday.
Can UVA play well on the road?
Virginia's numbers away from home are simply horrible. UVA is 0-4 in true road games and 1-6 in games played away from Charlottesville. Those four road losses have come by 18, 12, 14, and 23 points. Virginia gives up nearly 74 points per game in games played away from JPJ while scoring less than 60 in those games. UVA's turnovers also go up by more than four per game when the Cavaliers play on the road. Even a quality performance in a loss would be a step in the right direction for Virginia in this road game.
Can Virginia's front court compete in the paint and on the glass?
Among the most disparaging season-long trends for the Cavaliers are their ineffectiveness in the paint and on the glass. As we discussed earlier, Louisville followed the example of many of UVA's opponents this season and crushed Virginia in both paint points and rebounding in the first meeting in Charlottesville. UVA's most recent game against SMU didn't go much better in those areas, but the margins were slimmer and the Cavaliers got a great game from Blake Buchanan, who had his first-career double-double with 11 points on 5/7 shooting and 15 rebounds. Maybe that performance will spark him to another solid all-around game against Louisville. Virginia needs it desperately.
UVA hasn't lost in Louisville since 2020 and has only lost in the KFC Yum! Center twice, but this is the season where it seems all of Virginia's illustrious streaks are coming to an end. Louisville hadn't ever won a game in JPJ until two weeks ago and the Cards won that one by 20. This is a talented, well-coached Louisville team and Virginia hasn't played a good game on the road this entire season. Louisville sweeps the regular season series against Virginia for the first time ever.
Score prediction: Virginia 60, Louisville 68