Staggering temperature rise predicted for the Middle East and North Africa

Some parts of the region, which is already warming at the same rapid rate as the Arctic, could see up to 9 degrees Celsius of warming.

21 November 2024

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WASHINGTON -- The Middle East and North Africa, which already include some of the hottest and driest spots on Earth, are undergoing accelerated climate change and will reach warming thresholds two to three decades earlier than the rest of the world, a new study reports. By 2100, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could experience up to 9 degrees Celsius (16.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming.

The region, which already has record-breaking summer temperatures, is currently close to exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming on average compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Additional warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaption measures.

"When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and that we should not exceed two degrees Celsius," said Abdul Malik, a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the study's lead author. "But in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already surpassed 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius."

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The rapid rate means that the Middle East and North Africa could reach 3 and 4 degrees Celsius of warming (5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) nearly three decades earlier than most of the globe. That warming will be especially rapid in inland areas of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Middle East and North Africa already include some of the hottest countries on the planet. Hotspots will grow over inland Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, Iran's Elburz Mountains and Algeria, according to new research in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Credit: Abdul Malik

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