We came across a bearish thesis on Chegg, Inc. (CHGG) on The Chop Wood, Carry Water Newsletter's Substack by Alexandru Dragut. In this article, we will summarize the bears' thesis on CHGG. Chegg, Inc. (CHGG)'s share was trading at $1.68 as of Nov 19. CHGG's forward P/E was 1.68 according to Yahoo Finance.
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Chegg has positioned itself as a platform providing students with affordable, personalized learning tools designed to save time and improve academic performance. However, its recent financial struggles and user dissatisfaction reveal deep challenges, marking a stark reversal from its pandemic-era success. Once benefiting from the surge in online learning, Chegg now finds itself grappling with disruptive forces, most notably the rise of AI technologies. The company has even publicly attributed its decline to AI competitors, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, which offers free alternatives to Chegg's subscription-based services. This acknowledgment underscores Chegg's difficulties in adapting to a rapidly evolving market.
Over 80% of Chegg's revenue comes from subscriptions, historically providing predictable income. Yet, intensified competition and weakened user retention have exposed vulnerabilities in its model. In response, Chegg has pivoted toward professional development and skill-based certifications, broadening its target audience to include professionals. While this strategic shift aims to reduce dependence on traditional academic users, its success remains uncertain. To support this transition, Chegg has introduced conversational AI features, aiming to enhance interactivity and engagement. However, competitive pressure from free AI tools and Google's new AI-generated search features -- designed to keep users on its platform -- threatens to undermine these efforts further.
Chegg has taken steps to stabilize, including a 21% workforce reduction and other cost-saving measures, bolstering liquidity and improving margins. Recent Q3 results showed better-than-expected revenue of $137 million and $22 million in adjusted EBITDA, signaling some progress. However, a 13.5% year-over-year revenue decline highlights the scale of its challenges. With international expansion fraught with cultural and regulatory risks, and domestic market saturation limiting growth, the company's long-term trajectory appears precarious.
Chegg's valuation reflects these struggles. While its low price could appeal to speculative investors, its revenue decline and $821 million loss over the past year suggest a business veering toward a value trap. Despite management's optimism, the combination of declining revenues, market share erosion, and unproven turnaround strategies makes Chegg a high-risk investment.