The United States national debt is projected to surge by $23.9 trillion over the next decade, according to the latest budget outlook from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The figure does not include additional tax cuts, such as those championed by President-elect Donald Trump, which could add trillions more to the debt.
Released on Friday, the nonpartisan CBO's 10-year budget forecast offers a mixed outlook for the nation's fiscal future.
While higher taxable incomes are expected to ease some pressure on the rising debt, the report warns that annual budget deficits will remain stubbornly high, potentially reaching 6.1 percent of GDP by 2035 -- significantly more than the 3.8 percent average deficit over the past five decades.
The forecast presents a challenge for the incoming Republican administration, which has pledged to extend and expand the 2017 tax cuts -- set to expire at the end of this year -- without corresponding cuts in government spending.
Trump's proposed tax cuts could exceed $4 trillion, which his nominee for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, warned could be essential to avoid a potential economic downturn.
The CBO report highlights the persistent gap between government revenues and spending, a trend that has only worsened in recent years.
Although tax revenues are expected to grow modestly, the CBO notes that a significant increase in taxable income will only alleviate some of the pressure on the national debt.
For the current fiscal year, the federal deficit is projected to reach $1.87 trillion, slightly lower than last year's $1.91 trillion.
But by 2027, while tax collections may outpace federal spending, the growing costs of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare will reverse that trend, causing the debt burden to spiral again.
This fiscal trajectory comes amid an aging U.S. population. Social Security and Medicare, crucial for millions of Americans, are expected to grow unsustainably in the coming years.
Despite bipartisan promises to protect these programs, there are clear signs they are on a path toward insolvency, threatening the broader fiscal health of the country.
The CBO's projections also show that the U.S. federal government will spend approximately $7 trillion this fiscal year, representing 23.3 percent of the nation's GDP.
Meanwhile, discretionary spending on national security and social programs is expected to decrease slightly to 5.3 percent of GDP, below the long-term average of 7.9 percent.
Trump Treasury nominee Scott Bessent: "We do not have a revenue problem in the U.S. We have a spending problem."
Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which tracks federal debt: "As lawmakers consider the range of expiring tax policy at the end of the year, they should make a commitment to at least 'do no fiscal harm.'"
He added that lawmakers should "avoid budget gimmicks and base their assumptions on neutral, nonpartisan estimates like this one from the CBO."
With the CBO's warning about the mounting fiscal challenges, the incoming administration and Congress face difficult decisions. The growing divide between the nation's revenues and obligations, compounded by the potential for new tax cuts, suggests that balancing the budget may be an increasingly elusive goal.