This year's NFL playoffs offer a unique construct.
On one hand, there are the behemoth Kansas City Chiefs. They've won consecutive Super Bowl and are going for a third, which would make them the first team ever to win three in a row. Only three teams -- the 1970s Dolphins, 1990s Bills and 2010s Patriots -- have ever even reached three straight.
The Chiefs, of course, are led by the game's best player, Patrick Mahomes. They went 15-2, tied for the best record. They have a bye in the AFC and formidable home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium.
And yet, they are not actually the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. That's because, for all their wins and achievements, they rank just 11th in point differential. By defense-adjusted value over average -- a catch-all metric that has gained popularity in recent years -- they rank eighth. Those numbers are closer to the Broncos and Commanders than to the Lions and Bills.
So, who are the real contenders in each conference?
The contenders: Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles
The Lions have comfortably been the best team in football all season. They fell just short of reaching the Super Bowl last winter in a heart-wrenching defeat to the 49ers but have spent the past four months using that as fuel.
Their two losses came by a combined 10 points. More often than not, they obliterated opponents, scoring 39 more points than any other team in the NFL. Their defense has been besieged by injuries -- including to edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who was on track to be the defensive player of the year -- but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been able to piece together a top 10 unit.
The Eagles, though, post a formidable challenge in the NFC. They have the conference's best defense and a top-five offensive line. That's before you get to running back Saquon Barkley, who became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Add in a bounce-back year from quarterback Jalen Hurts and a pair of star receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, and it's easy to see why this team finished 14-3.
The Lions' advantage lies in a more explosive passing game but there's a reason Philadelphia hasn't lost with a healthy Hurts since September.
Top darkhorse: Washington Commanders
It's been a long three decades in Washington. For 24 years, the organization was left to decay by owner Dan Snyder. Even scattered playoff appearances rarely brought genuine hope.
But things are different now. Josh Harris bought the team in 2023, hired his staff -- lead by general manager Adam Peters, head coach Dan Quinn, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury -- last winter and drafted Jayden Daniels in April.
The change has been instant. Daniels led Washington to 12 wins -- its most since the last Super Bowl season in 1991. The Commanders lack elite-level talent outside of Daniels and star receiver Terry McLaurin but their offense is genuinely explosive, ranking fifth in points scored. They can pull off an upset or two as the NFC's No. 6 seed.
Championship game pick: Philadelphia Eagles over Detroit Lions.
The contenders: Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens
Unlike the NFC, the AFC has three genuine contenders. Just ask the betting markets, where Super Bowl odds more than double between the third team in the AFC (Baltimore) and the third team in the NFC (Minnesota).
Kansas City, with the bye and the Super Bowl pedigree, heads the list. But Buffalo and its top-scoring offense might be the most intriguing team in this conference. This is not the gunslinging Josh Allen of years past. He's had his total attempts curtailed from 409 in 2021 all the way down to 307 this year. In the process, the Bills have learned to protect the ball, morphing into a team with the league's best turnover margin.
The defense is only slightly above average but everything Buffalo has done over the past few years -- both with roster construction and schematics -- was aimed at building a team that could win in the playoffs.
Then there's Baltimore, which is tied with Buffalo for the NFL's third-best scoring margin despite its relatively pedestrian 12-5 record. The Ravens have a remarkable seven wins against teams in the playoff field, including a 35-10 win over the Bills back in September.
Plus, they might even be better than their scoring margin suggests. They lead the NFL in net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. Their defense also holds teams to the league's lowest yards per rush attempt.
The two best teams in the NFC are led by Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts -- good quarterbacks but not game-breaking superstars. It's a lot harder for an inferior team to go on the road and beat a team led by Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. But that's the task facing AFC hopefuls.
If anyone can do it, it might be Jim Harbaugh's Chargers. After finishing his eight-year stint at Michigan with a national title, Harbaugh returned to the NFL and immediately turned this organization around, with a six-win improvement between seasons.
Plus, the Chargers have the best scoring defense in the NFL and an elite quarterback of their own in Justin Herbert. A first-round matchup with the beatable Houston Texans should also help. Still, it's hard to envision a deep run.
Championship game pick: Buffalo Bills over Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl pick: Buffalo Bills over Philadelphia Eagles