Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley, right, scores a touchdown past Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Ja'Sir Taylor (36) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif.
The push-pull between NFL favorites and underdogs continued for another slate as the latter bit back in Week 10 to even up the year-long against the spread records for both sides at 74 wins apiece on closing numbers.
A similar seesaw battle is taking place in the totals market with less fanfare. Points had been flowing recently but unders bounced back to a 10-4 record last week.
Overs now lead 76-74-2 on the season.
The pick'em column has toed into the totals market for the first time this season with a bonus over/under hidden each week. The exercise got off to an inauspicious start with five straight losses but has since won four of the last five weeks.
That included hitting one of the few overs on last week's schedule when a late touchdown by Titans receiver Calvin Ridley pushed his team's game against the Chargers over 37.5 in a 27-17 loss.
Totals placed late week as part of the Sunday Sweats column, which runs Saturday, are faring better at 8-2 on the year. That brings the overall Talking Points totals record to 12-8 and means they are performing stronger than the against the spread picks that sit at 77-69-6 handicapping every game.
I'm shooting for the bottom line of both to get a boost this week, so keep an eye out the bonus over/under buried below amidst all the point-spread picks.
Find the point-spread handicap on every Week 11 game below. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The Week 10 record was 7-7.
Plays (28-25-2)
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh has taken on the NFL's seventh easiest schedule of opposing offenses per the DVOA ratings. It could be a shock going up against a historically efficient Ravens' side especially with their ability to attack the Steelers' weakness as DVOA's No. 18 rated deep passing defense.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The 49ers annihilated the Seahawks on the road in Week 6, building a three yard per play advantage in a 36-24 win as 3.5-point favorites despite a significantly injury-riddled roster. Now healthy and at home, they deserve more than a three-point move in their favor for this matchup.
Chicago Bears +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers This number was trending toward pick'em before the Bears' current three-game straight-up and against the spread losing streak. It may not feel comfortable backing Chicago now, but the only choice is to sell the stark price increase on Green Bay and hope new playcaller Thomas Brown can coax something out of the Bears' offense.
New Orleans Saints pick'em vs. Cleveland Browns The Saints rank ahead of the Browns by any season-long efficiency metric, and that's with nearly a half-season of overmatched rookie Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback. It may have only been one game so far but Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi, with increased input from offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, looks like an upgrade over the fired Dennis Allen.
Washington Commanders +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia is hot with five straight wins including blowouts in three of its last four, but even with those outlier boosts, Washington has been the better team by almost every metric on the season as a whole. The betting market has been too hesitant to price Washington as a true contender, and this might be the last time to take advantage.
Leans (29-25-3)
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons The Falcons might have the most misleading record in the NFL as their No. 17 ranking in DVOA and No. 18 standing in expected points added (EPA) per play implies their 6-4 mark is flattering. On the other hand, the Broncos have been unlucky to sit at 5-5 if anything considering their +20 point differential and blocked field goal loss at the Chiefs last week.
Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Minnesota Vikings Tennessee's offense was quietly respectable for the second straight week in gaining 5.7 yards per play in a 27-17 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers as 8-point underdogs last week. Minnesota's league-leading defense has regressed since its dominant start to the season. Over 39 points might be the best way to bet this game, making a Titans' over the bonus total for the second straight week.
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals have only faced two above-average defenses all year by DVOA, and their high-flying offense was relatively grounded in both affairs -- a 37-17 Week 9 loss to the Eagles and a 26-25 Week 2 defeat to the Chiefs. The Chargers, with the No. 8 defense, should also be set up to keep Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase in check.
New York Jets -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts Both teams are unequivocal messes, but only one of them has the talent to conceivably turn it around. Even if Aaron Rodgers is likely to finish the year as one of the NFL's lesser quarterbacks, the Jets' defense should rebound to at least around league average.
Guesses (20-19-1)
New England Patriots +5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The number looks right, but the Rams are faced with a short week off a Monday Night Football 23-15 Monday Night Football loss to the Dolphins as 2-point favorites and the Patriots might have more upside. New England has looked energized by the emergence of a young core led by quarterback Drake Maye and edge rusher Keion White.
Houston Texans -7.5 at Dallas Cowboys There's nothing worse than laying 7.5 points in the NFL with the preponderance of games that finish with a seven-point margin, but the Cowboys may have yet to hit rock bottom. Dallas' offense looks anemic with quarterback Cooper Rush at the controls and the defense is 29 in the NFL in giving up 5.8 yards per play.
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 at Buffalo Bills Forget taking the points; for those who like Kansas City, backing it on the moneyline at +120 is a better bet mathematically than +2.5 given how rarely games land with one- or two-point margins. Everyone's focused on how fortunate the Chiefs have been this season but the Bills have somewhat similarly gotten a run of good luck including a 3-1 record in games decided by less than a touchdown.
Miami Dolphins -7.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders' offense should piece together a better effort under interim offensive coordinator Scott Turner, but their defense has been just as dreadful. Miami was the clear side at -7 but the hook added after its Monday Night Football win over the Rams complicates things as it hasn't shown its usual offensive firepower to confidently lay a big price.
Detroit Lions -12.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Injured Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes a lot of heat for having yet to live up to expectations through four seasons, but his best retort could be how helpless the team has looked without him. Jacksonville's offense gained only 3.3 yards per play in a 12-7 loss to Minnesota as 7-point underdogs last week, giving little reason for optimism going forward.