The budding bromance between SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and president-elect Donald Trump could have massive implications for the United States' space program -- assuming the volatile pair don't flame out, as both have repeatedly done with other allies.
That's especially true when factoring in NASA's current strategy of relying on the private space industry for initiatives ranging from getting to the surface of the Moon to building a space station in Earth's orbit.
As Durham University astropolitics associate professor Bleddyn Bowen argues in an essay for The Conversation, the unusual pair-up between the new president and the richest man in the world could see the US doubling down on its existing private industry-led space policy, while potentially supercharging an emerging arms race in the Earth's orbit.
In some ways, the Trump administration could simply continue where it left off four years ago, with an emphasis on the Artemis Moon landing program, which has continued under the current Biden administration.
But the inclusion of Musk in Trump's inner circle this time around could also shake up NASA's priorities.
As SpacePolicyOnline editor Marcia Smith recently noted, the US may double down on human spaceflight efforts, an endeavor long championed by his new right-hand man. Don't forget that during his first term, Trump offered the head of NASA unlimited funding if the agency could get to Mars during his presidency.
"For all of the money we are spending, NASA should NOT be talking about going to the Moon -- We did that 50 years ago," Trump tweeted in 2019. "They should be focused on the much bigger things we are doing, including Mars (of which the Moon is a part), Defense and Science!"
This is all still hypothetical. After all, Trump didn't appoint Musk as the country's space policy czar -- instead, the richest man in the world has been put in charge of a still-fictional "Department of Government Efficiency," which will allegedly be tasked with "dismantling government bureaucracy" and slashing "excess regulations."
That role could facilitate Musk's hunger to break down environmental rules that were put in place, for instance, to protect wildlife inhabiting the region surrounding his space company's so-called "Starbase" facilities in South Texas.
At the same time, especially given Trump's ongoing denial of climate change, other government agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or NASA's Earth Sciences Division could face major budget cuts, Smith argued.
And don't forget thatNASA was already severely underfunded under the Biden administration, with Congress balking at the space agency's ballooning budgetary demands. Just this week, NASA's iconic Jet Propulsion Lab in California announced it would be laying off an additional 325 employees.
Where a GOP-led Congress will leave NASA's financial situation remains to be seen. As Smith points out, around half of its budget is currently allocated to its human spaceflight program.
The new administration could also majorly shake up the National Space Council, which is by law overseen by the Vice President. As Bowen points out, vice president Kamala Harris formalized a ban on anti-satellite weapons tests in 2022, something that could be revoked under vice president-elect JD Vance.
As far as we can tell, Vance has no background in space whatsoever, making his control over the council a big question mark.
On an international level, Trump's saber-rattling "America First" approach could greatly deteriorate foreign relations, especially when it comes to space.
However, alienating the international space community could have devastating effects on the country's efforts to establish dominance in space.
"I think we're just going to wait and see how that plays out," former US Space Command deputy commander John Shaw said during a recent episode the Space Foundation podcast, as quoted by SpaceNews. "It's hard to do things on your own in space, because we're all in there together. It would be like trying to do air traffic control all by yourself."