The Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round on Sunday afternoon.
L.A. upset the Vikings last week, but my Rams vs. Eagles predictions bet on their Super Bowl run to end here. Here are my free NFL picks for this playoff clash on January 19.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games. However, that stretch began after they lost 37-20 to the Philadelphia Eagles at home in Week 12.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have won 13 of their last 14 games, nine of which were by at least a touchdown.
L.A.'s offensive line greatly improved in pass protection during the second half of the season, but one exception was against Philly when Matthew Stafford was pressured 13 times and sacked five times.
The immobile Rams QB tends to crumble when he feels the heat in the pocket. Stafford is fifth out of 25 qualifying QBs in passing grade (91.0) when kept clean in the pocket per PFF but ranks dead-last under pressure (31.3). That's bad news against an Eagles front that gets to the QB despite rarely blitzing.
Since their bye in Week 5, the Eagles have led the league in defensive EPA and success rate. They've been dominant against the pass and the run, holding opponents to a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt while ranking second in defensive rush EPA.
The Rams' defense has impressed over the last month but has found itself in favorable situations. That won't be the case against a Philly attack with a dominant line and multiple playmakers.
The Eagles trampled the Rams with 314 rushing yards in Week 12, and L.A. doesn't have the corners to match up against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
This is also a tough travel spot for the Rams, who scrambled to a neutral site on Monday to avoid the fires in L.A. and now head to the East Coast on a short week. Back the Eagles to roll.
Barkley's rushing yards total is a staggering 111.5, but what can you expect from a guy who rushed for 2,005 yards during the regular season? Barkley has surpassed this number in four of his last five games, and he had a career-high 255 yards on 26 carries against the Rams in Week 12.
L.A. is 26th in the league in yards allowed per carry (4.6) and 28th in average yards before contact allowed to running backs.
Philadelphia's offense leads the NFL in rushing play percentage (55.9%) and average time of possession of 32:16. I'm betting on the Eagles to get out to an early lead and then rely on Barkley to control their clock while their elite defense prevents a comeback.