Right-hander Luis Severino is "likely" to decline the Qualifying Offer extended to him by the Mets earlier this month, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that Severino "loves" playing in New York but is now expected to attempt to land a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.
Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second time this year. The right-hander entered the open market last winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees where he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of work and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went quite well, as he pitched to a league average 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of work. He struck out 21.2% of opponents while walking batters at just a 7.9% clip. Those are all solid but unspectacular numbers, but that mid-to-back of the rotation production can still earn a strong guarantee in free agency, as the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent years (albeit without the QO attached).
Given that, it's perhaps not much of a surprise that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets attached a QO to him. That guarantee is in line with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals just before free agency opened, and Wacha was viewed as a similarly borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. Of course, Severino wouldn't necessarily have to reach that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile decision for him. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers last winter that afforded him the opportunity to opt out following the 2024 season, and even a similar deal would net Severino a larger overall guarantee than the QO while still affording him the flexibility to return to free agency next winter.
With Severino poised to decline the QO, the Mets will now need to either re-sign him in free agency or replace him in their rotation. The club's rotation also stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who received a QO as well but has long been expected to decline it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It's certainly possible that the club could look to reunite with either Severino or one of the other exiting free agent starters, although the Mets have plenty of financial flexibility and are coming off a surprise trip to the NLCS. That could lead them to aim higher in free agency this winter, with top free agent starters such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all expected to be available. It's even possible that they turn to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades, as they've been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.
Should Severino ultimately land elsewhere in free agency, him declining the QO means that the Mets would receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of the 2025 draft as a club that paid the luxury tax in 2024. Meanwhile, interested teams would have to surrender a combination of draft picks and international bonus pool dollars commensurate with their status relative to the luxury tax and revenue sharing as laid out by MLBTR's Mark Polishuk last month. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2024 would surrender just their third-round pick in the 2025 draft to sign Severino, while teams that paid the Competitive Balance Tax this year would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool space.