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Despite being eliminated from playoffs, no quit in Raiders

By Case Keefer

Despite being eliminated from playoffs, no quit in Raiders

Throughout their NFL-high eight-game losing streak, the Raiders have persistently maintained that they're not turning on each other or giving up on the season.

Last week's 19-17 loss as 14-point underdogs at the Kansas City Chiefs was a testament to that attitude. Las Vegas went all out against the archrival, two-time defending Super Bowl champions and was in position for a game-winning field goal before an early snap by center Jackson-Powers Johnson turned into a fumble recovered by Kansas City.

Unlike some soap operas that have played out among other bottom-feeding teams in the NFL after close losses, the Raiders defended each other in the locker room postgame and expressed a resolve to rectify their mistakes going forward. Both Powers-Johnson and quarterback Aidan O'Connell took accountability for the game-sealing turnover, though coach Antonio Pierce said the loss wasn't on either of them.

Everyone seems to agree that the only thing that's going to pump positivity into a disappointing season is a late string of wins, even if they're technically meaningless with the Raiders' playoff hopes long dashed. It won't be easy to bank a victory this week heading into a second straight road game against a Buccaneers team suddenly tied at the top of the NFC South standings.

Favorable matchup: Raiders' revitalized passing game vs. Buccaneers' pass defense

Las Vegas' aerial attack has looked much crisper in three games under new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who took over for the fired Luke Getsy following a Week 10 bye. The Raiders have passed for season-high yardage in back-to-back games, and Turner's debut in a loss to the Dolphins was also the fourth-most prolific passing performance of the year. Turner briefly helped revitalize the worst season of starting quarterback Gardner Minshew's career before the veteran was lost for the year with a collarbone injury. The new offense looked even better with O'Connell at the helm, as the second-year quarterback threw for a career-high 340 yards and 9.7 yards per attempt against what had been an above-average Chiefs pass defense. The success could continue because Tampa Bay has not fielded an above-average pass defense. Facing a salary-cap crunch, the Buccaneers had to shed veteran defensive backs the past couple years and the negative effects have been evident this season. They rank 24th in the NFL in defending the pass per the DVOA ratings and have been particularly susceptible to the deep ball. Both of O'Connell's touchdown passes against the Chiefs were on downfield throws -- 33 yards to tight end Brock Bowers and 58 yards to wide receiver Tre Tucker -- and he'll likely take some similar shots against the Buccaneers.

Problematic matchup: Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield vs. Raiders' pass defense

There's a chance this could turn into a shootout between O'Connell and Mayfield. The Raiders are slightly worse than the Buccaneers on defending the deep ball on the year -- No. 20 in DVOA to No. 19, respectively -- and Mayfield has 36 completions of 20 yards or more, tied for 11th in the NFL. These two teams might not be known for lighting up the scoreboard, but they've both seen eight of their 12 games on the year eclipse sportsbooks' over/under totals -- tied for the third-highest mark in the league. The days of the 29-year-old Mayfield, who was taken first overall by the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft, being called a bust are long gone. Those accusations were becoming widespread two years ago when the Carolina Panthers released him midseason but, looking back, that might have been the start of his revival. Mayfield's debut with his third team, the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, is a moment that still lives in infamy for Raider fans. Starting on three days' notice with scant time to learn the playbook, Mayfield led the Rams to a 17-16 comeback victory over the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. The Raiders are 2-0 against Mayfield otherwise -- both of those starts are from when he was with the Browns -- but that's little solace to make up for the embarrassment of the loss to him two years ago.

Gamebreaker: Edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson

The 25-year-old most known as a standout on LSU's 2019 College Football Playoff championship team signed to the Raiders' practice squad before Week 1 after getting cut by the Carolina Panthers. Las Vegas was in the market for edge-rushing depth after losing Malcolm Koonce for the year to a knee injury. Pierce said the Raiders were drawn to Chaisson out of belief that he still had the potential that made him a first-round pick five years ago. That's finally started to come across, especially against the Chiefs, against whom the former No. 20 overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars might have been the Raiders' most impactful defensive player. He had 1.5 sacks and two more quarterback hits. Chaisson was initially credited with 2.5 sacks, but the stats keeper ended up crediting one of them to Maxx Crosby on a play that was whistled dead when they both contacted Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Without Koonce, the Raiders have been looking for the right complement to Crosby on the other side of line. Charles Snowden has played well and come through in some big moments, but Chaisson and second-year player Tyree Wilson have recently surpassed him in terms of impact and, therefore, snap count.

Big Number: 17.3%

The Raiders have a 17.3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, per the DVOA ratings. Selecting as highly as possible has become the focus of the final five games for a large portion of the Raiders' fan base. Las Vegas currently has the No. 2 pick in the draft but there are a lot of bad teams grouped around it at the bottom of the standings. The New York Giants currently are in line to have the No. 1 pick and are being accused of shutting down some players to hold onto the position. Like the Giants and Raiders, the Jacksonville Jaguars also have only two wins and just lost quarterback Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the year to a concussion and shoulder injury. Meanwhile, the three-win Panthers edge the Raiders for the NFL's worst point differential (-139 to -110). The three-win Patriots rate out as the worst team in the league by DVOA. Las Vegas might be more competitive than all those teams down the stretch of the season, which is exactly what those dreaming of landing University of Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders don't want to happen.

Best Bet (7-5): Sincere McCormick to score a touchdown

Taking a long shot probably isn't the best path to breaking out of a two-bet losing streak, and 1-3 stretch over the past four games, but the price makes this bet too appealing to pass up. McCormick is +195 (i.e. risking $100 to win $195) to score, but the first touchdown of the former practice-squad running back's career is imminent. The UTSA product is set to be Las Vegas' featured back for the rest of the season. His touches increased from five in a Week 12 loss to the Broncos to 14 against the Chiefs. They're only going to go up from here, with both Pierce and Turner praising McCormick and prioritizing him continuing to contribute. The Raiders strangely had only one red zone trip against the Chiefs, but they should at least get to a couple versus the Buccaneers, and McCormick will get his chances near the end zone.

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