I've been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 309 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you'll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).
The oddsmakers had this as a much closer fight than the public has. They opened with Jon Jones at -298 and Stipe Miocic at +240, but public betting has changed that quite dramatically, with Miocic being pushed out to +500 territory.
When this fight was scheduled for last year the opening odds were +170 Miocic and -200 Jones. The public betting pushed Miocic out to +300 before the fight was cancelled due to an injury to Jones.
Both instances show that, in this match-up, the public are not feeling very confident in Miocic. Considering he hasn't fought in three years, this could be a case of many members of the betting public not being that familiar with Miocic and the exploits that made him, statistically, the most successful UFC Heavyweight champion of all time.
This is great news if you're someone who thinks Miocic is going to shock the world on Saturday night. If that's you, it might be worth holding off since his odds are still trending upwards.
There hasn't been much line movement with our main event. The public must be pretty satisfied with Charles Oliveira as a decent-sized favorite over Michael Chandler.
Chandler comes into this one off a long lay-off because of Conor McGregor's inability to commit to a fight or do what he needs to do to make it happen. Oliveira has been more active; however, last time out, he lost to Arman Tsarukyan.
Oliveira won the first fight between these two, despite being rocked early.
For that first fight the lines opened at -178 Oliveira and +146 Chandler. The public liked Chandler that time around. They bet his odds down to +120 (and Oliveira's to -125).
The public were wrong that time around will be wrong again?
The oddsmakers started Bo Nickal off at -1000 and there's been minimal public interest in him since, moving his number just a couple of points. That's not due to a lack of faith or anything.
It's simply because there's no value to be had there.
The lack of interest in Paul Craig has driven up his price, though. He opened at +600 and that's risen by almost twenty percent.
This line is nothing new for Nickal. He opened at -1100 and closed at -1430 in his last fight, versus Cody Brundage. He opened as -2500 and closed at -1300 against Val Woodburn.
Craig has seen his odds skyrocket in his last few UFC fights. Against Caio Borralho he opened at +154, but that exploded to +475 (for good reason, Borralho mopped the floor with him). Previously he saw his opening line of +200 rise to +360 against Brendan Allen (who submitted him late). Before that, against Andre Muniz, he opened at +140 and that rose to +200 (a fight he won via technical knockout).
Viviane Araujo opened at +190 and spiked at +235 on Nov. 5, 2024. Her line then dropped to +213 on Nov. 13, 2024, before lengthening slightly to what I have now. Throughout all that Karine Silva's line hasn't changed much.
This is a pretty close fight, though Silva has certainly done more in the cage lately. I can understand why a few folks might be making big bets on Araujo when they saw her at plus odds. She's been in there with some good fighters and it's not out of the question that she will be able to outlast Silva for a decision.
Personally, though, I like Silva's more well-rounded game and I think she'll come out ahead after a close decision (maybe a split or majority).
The public were right about Mauricio Ruffy last time out. In his proper UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey, he opened as a +150 underdog. But, that shifted by 80.4% to make him a -225 favorite. He then went on to obliterate Mullarkey with patented Fighting Nerd style striking.
His line hasn't changed much in this match-up with James Llontop. The fight recently got switched from a Lightweight contest to a Catchweight at 165 pounds. With Llontop missing weight by one pound, I think we can assume the late change was because of him struggling and not Ruffy.
Llontop's odds might go even higher in the next 24 hours because of that (if the fight goes ahead).
Jonathan Martinez opened at +124. Then on Nov. 4, 2024, his line shifted to -106. His line started to lengthen against on Nov. 10, 2024.
Marcus McGhee opened at -148. On Nov. 5, 2024, his line shortened to -112 before then lengthening at Nov. 9, 2024.
All this movement speaks to this being a close and hard to call fight. McGhee has looked good so far in his UFC career. Martinez has looked good, too, other than his last fight -- where he looked totally overwhelmed opposite Jose Aldo.
There's been some interesting betting activity on this fight. Chris Weidman actually opened up as the +170 underdog, but he's been steadily bet into favorite territory, dropping a whopping 38.3%. Eryk Anders was the -205 favorite before falling a little to -117.
I'm a little puzzled by the movement here. I don't have any faith in a 40-year-old Chris Weidman. Usually you see this kind of movement with fighters who are especially popular (like Sean O'Malley and Paddy Pimblett).
Damon Jackson opened at +118 and Jim Miller opened at -140. But, the public clearly thinks that Jackson should be the favorite in this match-up of crafty veterans. My pick is Jackson, too, but I don't think many folks out there believe this will be anything other than a very close fight.
Roberto Romero is coming in on very late notice for Lucas Almeida. The opening lines only just came out, which is the reason there has been minimal movement here.
Mickey Gall opened at +120 and Ramiz Brahimaj opened at -142. But, this is another fight where the public think Vegas is wrong. They think Gall (a more recognizable name) should be the favorite.
This line movement has given Gall minus odds for the first time since he fought Diego Sanchez in 2019 (he was TKO'd by Sanchez in that fight).
The public agreed with Vegas that Oban Elliott should be the favorite against Bassil Hafez. However, the public also thought the oddsmakers were being a little conservative. Elliott started out as a -142 favorite, with Hafez as the +120 underdog.
Hafez won as a big favorite last time out (-425 vs. Mickey Gall). In his UFC debut, a short-notice fight with Jack Della Maddalena, he was a massive +420 underdog. Despite his long odds he gave a very good account of himself opposite the Aussie, losing via split decision.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-15.*
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 7-4.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-4.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 2-4.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 1-1.
There are a lot of big underdogs on this card. Stipe Miocic, Paul Craig, Bassil Hafez, James Llontop and Roberto Romero have eye-watering odds that could return a lot of dough if you're braze enough to bet on them.
I don't see any of them being worth the risk, though.
Of the safer underdog bets, there are a few fighters who opened as favorites who are now available at plus odds (Jim Miller and Ramiz Brahimaj). Either of those guys have a great chance to win.
Personally, I like Eduarda Moura's chances now she's at a more comfortable weight class. I also like Jonathan Martinez to rebound from his disappointing showing in Rio.
Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?