Oklahoma students and fans rush the field after Oklahoma defeated Alabama during a NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Norman, Okla.
The final slate of the college football season, rivalry week, has a reputation for upending college football's best-laid plans.
This year's Week 14 might have its work cut out for it in that regard. Week 13 might have beaten the Thanksgiving slate to the punch as far as disruption.
Just when the picture for the initial 12-team College Football Playoff was beginning to come into a focus, a trio of upsets in the SEC scrambled everything up again. Two teams considered safely in the field, Alabama and Ole Miss, went down as two-touchdown favorites to Oklahoma and Florida, respectively.
Then another team just on the outside looking in but controlling its own destiny, Texas A&M, fell in a triple-overtime instant classic at Auburn as 2-point favorites.
A $100 moneyline parlay tying together the Sooners, Gators and Aggies at Circa Sports would have paid out $7,568. That implies only a 1.3% chance that all three contenders would suffer a loss.
I was on Auburn in College Football by the Odds column, but took a loss in the other two upsets. Ole Miss' sleepy performance particularly hurt as it was a play as compared to Alabama -14 over Oklahoma only being listed as a guess.
Of course, there's potential for more mayhem to occur over this holiday weekend -- especially with all 134 Football Bowl Subdivision teams squaring off against one another for the only time this season.
No byes. No games against lower-level competition. Just straight action.
It's bettors' last time to take advantage in bulk, so let's make the most of it.
Read below for my handicap on every other Week 14 FBS point spread. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories, with the line being the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. Games at the bottom are listed in rough order of confidence. The column's overall record stands at 375-284-7 against the spread (133-94-4 on plays, 121-87-2 on leans and 121-103-1 on guesses) after going 38-21 (8-8 on plays, 13-5 on leans and 17-8 on guesses) last week.
Big Games
Georgia Tech +19.5 at Georgia, over/under: 53. This number is exactly what I made it but, with nothing else to go off of, the spot seems to improved for Georgia Tech with Georgia clinching a spot in the SEC Championship Game through last week's chaos. The Bulldogs' focus will now be at least partially split with some of the staff scouting for a matchup next week against either Texas or Texas A&M. Guess: Georgia Tech +19.5.
Michigan at Ohio State -20.5, over/under: 43.5. This point spread was Ohio State -22.5 going into last week's game, and there was no compelling reason for it to drop below three touchdowns. Yes, Michigan's offense looked better in a 50-6 win over Northwestern as 10.5-point favorites but, more impressively, Ohio State's defense was impenetrable in a 38-15 win over Indiana as 10.5-point favorites. Lean: Ohio State -20.5.
South Carolina +2.5 at Clemson, over/under: 49.5. Both teams have a strength in the defensive line, and it may come down to whichever side creates more havoc. That could prove to be either one of the rivals so, in a low-scoring game, take the points. Lean: South Carolina +2.5.
Notre Dame -7 at USC, over/under: 52. USC might be having some buyer's remorse for outbidding Georgia to land former UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava. The Liberty High graduate still likely has a good college career ahead of him but he's looked uncomfortable at best in Lincoln Riley's offense since taking over as the starter two weeks ago. Play: Notre Dame -7.
Auburn +11.5 at Alabama, over/under: 52. This point spread was -15.5 one week ago and even -15 in the preseason. Shaving off four points across a key number is way too harsh at this point of the year; no matter how bad the Crimson Tide looked, there's too much data from the rest of the season indicating they are far superior to the Tigers. Play: Alabama -11.5.
Texas -5.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 48.5. Yes, both the Longhorns and the Aggies have played a weak strength of schedule for SEC standards. But Texas has lambasted through it, with a +268 point differential, to Texas A&M merely surviving, with a +120 point differential. Play: Texas -5.5
Kansas State +3 at Iowa State, over/under: 51.5. They likely won't get to play in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game, but the Wildcats might actually be the best team in the conference. Kansas State is superior to Iowa State by every metric, including expected points added (EPA) per play (No. 22 in the nation to No. 34) and success rate (No. 24 to No. 75).No. 75). Play: Kansas State +3.
Big Plays
Nebraska +6 at Iowa, over/under: 39.5. The Hawkeyes are down to a walk-on at quarterback in Jackson Stratton. It didn't matter in a 29-13 victory over a plummeting Maryland side as 4-point favorites but it should against a Nebraska team that's found its offense under new coordinator Dana Holgorsen. Play: Nebraska +6.
Miami -10.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 67.5. Everyone is so concerned with pointing out how poorly Miami's defense has played that they're missing the more pertinent point: The Hurricanes have the nation's best offense by far, per the SP+ ratings. A game forecasted to be high-scoring benefits the favorite, especially a favorite with this much firepower. Play: Miami -10.5.
Fresno State +9.5 at UCLA, over/under: 46.5. The Bruins have put up more fight in their first year under coach DeShaun Foster than expected, but they still haven't beaten a single team by this many points. Fresno State should put together an inspired effort as the players continue to fight for interim coach Tim Skipper. Play: Fresno St. +9.5.
UTEP +3 at New Mexico State, over/under: 52.5. The Aggies rate No. 124 in the nation in EPA per play despite playing one of the softest schedules. Translations: They should not, under any circumstances, be laying a field goal or more. Play: UTEP +3.
Oklahoma +6.5 at LSU, over/under: 46.5 LSU's offense has been tailing off while Oklahoma's defense is finally living up to its preseason potential as one of the better units in the country. This number might have underadjusted as the Sooners surely deserved some positive upgrade after dismantling a Crimson Tide offense that's second in the nation behind Miami by SP+. Play: Oklahoma +6.5.
Virginia +7.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 48.5. Here's part two in my sophomoric-strategy series of, "fade the team without a quarterback." Already down starter Kyron Drones, the Hokies also lost backup Collin Schlee in the second half of a 31-28 loss to Duke as 2.5-point favorites. Virginia has played above expectation all year and should be able to do it again against its underachieving archrival. Play: Virginia +7.5.
UNR +17.5 at UNLV, over/under: 55. The Wolf Pack have been scrappier than expected this season, but the sheer talent discrepancy on these rosters should be worth at least three touchdowns. UNLV should be uber-focused with a chance to notch its longest winning streak in the Fremont Cannon game in 20 years and reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Play: UNLV -17.5.