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Why Nuclear Stock Oklo Just Jumped 18%


Why Nuclear Stock Oklo Just Jumped 18%

Teaming up with artificial intelligence (AI) data center operator Switch, a privately owned company that according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data has a market value in excess of $5.4 billion, Oklo announced this morning that it plans to deploy 12 gigawatts of Oklo Aurora powerhouse projects through 2044.

Importantly, Oklo describes its relationship with Switch as non-binding, meaning that something (or nothing) could ultimately come of it. But assuming something does happen, here's what it might look like.

Over the next 20 years, and all across the U.S., Oklo will build enough small modular reactors (SMRs) to produce 12 gigawatts (GW) of power. Now, 1 GW is 1,000 megawatts (MW), or enough power to keep the lights on in roughly 750,000 American homes for a year. Therefore, 12 GW would power about 9 million homes, or in this present case, a handful of data centers for Switch.

This, in a nutshell, is why Oklo describes its master power agreement with Switch as "one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed."

And yet, it's the lack of details that should perhaps concern investors in Oklo stock today. For example, the companies do not provide any specifics on the financial terms of their agreement, and most pertinently, how much Switch will pay Oklo for its power... or when.

Granted, having a customer in hand willing to buy 12 GW of power (presumably annually, although the companies didn't clearly say that) sounds like good news for Oklo. The non-binding nature of the relationship, though, lends less assurance of that. And Switch doesn't seem to be promising to pay any money upfront to help Oklo finish designing (or building) its SMRs so as to be able to provide the power.

With Oklo stock still unprofitable, and unlikely to earn its first profit before 2029, I remain skeptical.

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