It's been a volatile first third of the season for several underperforming teams in the NHL. We're already up to three head coaches fired with a hew more hot seats, while a good group of those still employed haven't held back in dressing down their charges publicly. This brings us to the so-monikered, and statistically supported, "new coach bump," in which a team and/or certain individuals react positively to the harsh stimulus of their bench boss being shown the door. It's a phenomenon we might want to pay a little more attention, with the focus on individual scoring totals. The following three -- two of whom are already playing for new head coaching figures -- deserve particular attention as their club's best players with a shot at exceeding their respective projected scoring sums by season's end.
Connor Bedard Regular Season Total Points Over 70.5 (+125): From a statistical perspective, the fresh coach bump in Chicago is tangibly benefitting the club's young superstar. Since Anders Sorensen took over for Luke Richardson behind the Blackhawks' bench, Bedard has seven points in five games, including a pair of goals. A nice haul, particularly in contrast with the five goals and 14 assists inconsistently accrued over his prior 26 contests. The sophomore's current 9.1% shooting percentage and a rise in shots per game suggest an additional boost in goal scoring is on the way.
Enjoying greater success 5v5, Bedard collected 61 points in 68 games during his Calder-winning season (0.9/contest). Another similar run from now until season's end would result in a grand sum of 72, which checks the above "over" box, though marginally. That Sorensen is committed to finding the right line combination to best benefit his budding superstar offers additional hope. There's also a lot to be said for backing players with exceptionally high ceilings. Would you be at all surprised to see Bedard absolutely go off for a substantial stretch? I wouldn't.
Tage Thompson Regular Season Total Goals Over 40.5 (+110): First of all, he already has 16 in 26 contests. Another 25 in 51 hardly feels out of reach. There's also the optimism that this week's team meeting, in which Sabres owner Terry Pegula reportedly offered his reassurances that no drastic measures would be taken, helps loosen this underperforming group altogether. Lastly, and perhaps my favorite factor outside of Thompson's inherent skill and talent, is that he should rightly feel annoyed at being left off Team USA's initial roster for the Four Nations Face Off tournament. These top-notch players are a competitive and proud bunch. You can bet your bottom buck Thompson will want to prove worthy of serving as an injury substitute, should it come to that by February.
David Pastrnak Regular Season Total Goals Over 33.5 (-150): Sure, it's been a disappointing run so far, but do we really expect Pastrnak to score fewer than 34 goals in a full season for the first time since he banged out 15 as a 19-year-old in 51 games back in 2015-16? Despite his measly 11 through 32 contests, that total is hard to fathom from someone who finished seventh in scoring last year and second only to Connor McDavid (64) with 61 goals the season previous. Fortunately, there's evidence to suggest a positive turnaround should be in order, coincidentally or not, under Jim Montgomery replacement Joe Sacco.
First of all, Pastrnak's 8.66% shooting percentage is not only a career-low, but it also falls well under his 11-year average of 13.7%. According to Evolving Hockey, the sniper's individual expected goals value of 13.33ixG further suggests he's endured some bad luck to date. We can draw additional comfort from the Bruins' star forward playing his best game of the season this past Saturday, collecting a goal and three assists in a decisive 5-1 win over the Canucks. A self-described goal-scorer (no argument here), Pastrnak himself admits he hasn't been getting his usual looks. They'll some soon enough.