Mookie Alexander is the Producer/Managing Editor of Field Gulls, and has covered the NFL's Seattle Seahawks since 2017. He primarily focuses on Seahawks news, opinion, game day coverage, and statistical analysis. He also contributes national NFL and track and field coverage for SBNation.com.
It's a tight finish in the NFC West between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams for the division title. The Arizona Cardinals are lurking at 7-7 but not in a great position for a miracle finish, whereas the 6-8 San Francisco 49ers could be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend.
With the Seahawks throwing away their slender division lead last week, the Rams hold first place on the head-to-head tiebreaker despite having an identical 8-6 record. Not ideal!
This week, the Seahawks host the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings while the Rams travel to New Jersey to take on the 4-10 New York Jets. Again, the odds do not look favorable for Seattle. But in the interest of completeness, let's look at the four main scenarios from the Seahawks' perspective. I'm not including ties because, well, they almost never happen and I don't want to make things more convoluted.
Week 17 is almost meaningless for both teams. Neither can be eliminated from the NFC West title and neither can clinch. If Seattle loses in Week 17 and the Rams win, the Seahawks can still win the division in Week 18 through the strength of victory tiebreaker. If Seattle wins in Week 17 and the Rams lose, Los Angeles can still get the head-to-head tiebreaker by sweeping the Seahawks in Week 18.
However, if the Washington Commanders (9-5) slip up in the Wild Card race, the Seahawks could have an alternate path to the playoffs open up, so I wouldn't just waste Week 17 just because of the divisional situation.
Beside potentially putting the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers back in the division mix, this outcome is similar to if both the Seahawks and Rams win. Neither can be eliminated nor mathematically clinch the NFC West. It would create some possible three-way tie scenarios at the end of the season and those would not be kind to Seattle. The Wild Card would also be all but unattainable for the Seahawks.
Another way to say this: A Rams loss would give Seattle one massive lifeline before it even kicks the Vikings game off.
Incidentally, this is the only scenario of the four in which the San Francisco 49ers are not automatically eliminated from the division (and, in effect, the playoffs) regardless of their result against the Miami Dolphins.
The Seahawks could be mathematically eliminated from the division and the Wild Card in Week 17. Lose to the Bears while the Rams beat the Cardinals and that's all, folks. Even a Week 17 win over the Bears would effectively need a Cardinals win over the Rams in order for the Seahawks to have a fighting chance in Week 18.
Go Seahawks, go Jets, and just to be safe we should be pulling for the Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders for the Wild Card option, as well as the Carolina Panthers to just about deliver the KO punch to the Cardinals.