Wild Card Weekend kicks off with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Houston Texans as a road favorite at NRG Stadium on Saturday, January 11.
Los Angeles finished the season on an 8-3 heater and covered the number in 13 of its past 18 games, and my top Chargers vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks expect the Bolts to pull away again and advance to the AFC Divisional Round.
The Houston Texans have a single quality win this season, and it was all the way back in Week 5 when they topped the Buffalo Bills at home. Since then, Houston has lost two key receivers, and the Texans have looked lost on offense for the majority of the year.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown for just 6.6 yards per attempt and a 59.9% completion rate while ranking fourth-last in adjusted EPA per play among the 33 QBs with at least 200 plays since Week 7.
The Houston offensive line hasn't been able to consistently run block or protect Stroud, with the Texans ranking 22nd in pass-block win rate and 19th PFF pass-block grade and 31st in run-block win rate and 27th in PFF run-block grade. It has resulted in Houston tying for the third-most sacks allowed (54) in the league, and running back Joe Mixon rushing for just 3.2 yards per carry through four games since the Week 14 bye.
The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, have consistently played better than the sum of its parts down the stretch and finished the year on an 8-3 run.
The Chargers were 10th in EPA per play while allowing the eighth-lowest EPA per play, and quarterback Justin Herbert ranked fifth in air yards (90), while throwing for 8.0 YPA and a 66.2 CMP% during the run.
I also value Los Angeles playing the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens to one-possession losses, while Houston was outclassed by the two AFC powerhouses in December.
While I fully respect the chops of the Houston defense, these are two teams trending in the wrong direction, and I don't think the Texans can sustain drives or turn them into points enough against Los Angeles to cover the number. The Chargers did allow the fewest points in the league, after all.
As noted, Mixon has been held in check on the ground to the tune of just 3.2 yards per carry the past four weeks, and I'm expecting him to have a difficult time again Saturday. The Los Angeles defense has the sixth-highest PFF run defense grade and ranks seventh in run-stop win rate.
Another reason I'm anticipating the Chargers being able to hold Mixon in check is Houston wide receiver Nico Collins being the only other game-breaking talent to account for.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Bolts kicker Cameron Dicker has connected for two or more field goals in 12 of 17 games this season, and this is an excellent matchup for him to do so again.
In addition to the game being played in perfect conditions at NRG Stadium, the Texans have allowed the sixth-lowest third-down conversion rate, and I'm anticipating Houston stalling multiple Los Angeles drives to turn touchdown opportunities into field goals.
Plus, given the high stakes and Dicker hitting 70 of 75 field goals (93.3%) the past two seasons, I expect Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh to be happy to rely on his kicker.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
The Chargers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Texans.