At the height of the holiday baking season there's an unwelcome surprise at the supermarket this year: the price of eggs. They are up -- way up over this time last year. In November 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an average price of about $2.14 for a dozen eggs. Twelve months later, the price is about 70 percent (or $1.50) higher a dozen.

"It's related to the bird flu and the effect that's having on egg-producing hens," said Josh Stillwagon, PhD, Associate Professor and Chair of the Economics Division at Babson College in Wellesley. "If there's an outbreak on a farm they're required legally to cull the whole flock."

In fact, over the last three years H5N1 Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu or Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), has forced the culling of nearly a hundred million chickens in the U.S. In the last month alone, California farmers have culled more than 8 million birds potentially infected with H5N1.

EGG-NEWS.com reports the total number of egg-laying hens is probably about 12 million lower than before the outbreak of HPAI in 2022.

Eggs are not the only grocery item substantially more expensive this year than in November of 2023. The BLS reports milk products are up 3.25%, chicken and bread are 5% more costly and ground beef rose 8%.

"Everything's going up in price," said one shopper outside the Dedham Star Market.

"Seems like things are really climbing up," said another. "Especially staples."

There may be some truth to the claim that "everything's" more expensive at the supermarket.

"When the Federal Reserve is saying inflation is going down, they're talking about prices increasing more slowly over time," Stillwagon said. "Versus what we probably tend to think of, the cost of living, which is still going up -- albeit at a slower rate."

Stillwagon said food price inflation, overall, has fallen behind the overall inflation rate, which stands at about 2.7%. That's up from its low in September of 2.4% and is significantly higher than the approximately 2% the Federal Reserve would prefer to see.

Adding to the price shock at the supermarket is widespread wage stagnation.

"What we care about is what we can buy with our income," Stillwagon said. "How fast our wages are growing versus how fast prices are growing."

Stillwagon said that in the last year, wages have begun to grow. The fact some consumers have more money in their pockets -- and the holiday demand for eggs -- means that price may prove less of an obstacle for the household staple than it otherwise might -- at least for now.