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Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time


Fear of German Debt Binge Flips Key Market Gauge for First Time

(Bloomberg) -- The German 10-year yield rose above the equivalent swap rate for the first time on record as traders braced for the possibility of more bond sales after the nation's ruling coalition collapsed.

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The spread between the two inverted on Thursday, tightening to minus two basis points, the lowest reading since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 2007. It comes after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for snap elections next year and sacked his Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is opposed to relaxing rules that severely constrain government borrowing.

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The difference between bond yields and swap rates is an important gauge of future issuance because bonds tend to weaken relative to swaps as the market anticipate more sales. The move accelerates a long-term trend that has picked up pace across the world, reflecting investor fears over higher debt supply.

"The collapse of the German government looks set to add to the latest cheapening leg," Commerzbank AG strategist Hauke Siemssen wrote in a note. "The way toward more debt will most likely become easier without a finance minister Lindner."

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