Jeff DeYoung
Cold storage inventory continues to decrease when it comes to meat products.
The USDA's Cold Storage report released last week indicated September red meat stocks were 899.8 million pounds, down 1.1% from last year. Total beef stocks saw a decline of 1.7% from the same month last year to 413.8 million pounds.
In September, pork in cold storage saw a decline of 0.3% from a year ago to 460.1 million pounds.
Total poultry stocks were 1.2 billion pounds in September, down 4.1% from the previous year. In September, total chicken stocks were 755.2 million pounds, down 6.4% from last year. Total turkey stocks increased 1.4% from last year to 427.2 million pounds in September
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While most stocks were down, chicken production was starting to increase over the third quarter, according to USDA data and an analysis from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
"Chicken production during the first half of the year was close to identical with a year earlier," the LMIC says. "Chicken production in the last quarter of 2024 is forecast to be up 4%, bringing the annual tally up 2.2% from 2023.
"The risk on the forecast in the current quarter is to the upside as average bird weights were record-heavy during the summer, and a continuation of this trend would add an additional 1% to production."
The opposite is true when it comes to turkey production. Production over the summer was down 5.4% from a year ago.
"The industry continues to reel from expectations that upcoming holiday demand will be similar to a year-ago, which was about 10% less than prior to the COVID pandemic," the LMIC says. "Production during the first half of the year was down 6.3% from a year earlier, and inventories in cold storage at mid-year were still higher than 12 months earlier.
"Domestic use during the first half of the year was about the same as a year earlier while wholesale prices for whole birds were 40% lower. Exports were up slightly. Production in the last quarter of the year is forecast to be down 2%."
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