The Giants' season is spiraling again, after a brief reprieve with that sloppy win in Cleveland.
They're 1-3, with four tough games ahead -- Sunday's trip to Seattle, followed by home games against the Bengals and Eagles, then a Monday night visit to Pittsburgh.
Will the Giants be 1-7 -- and perhaps with an interim head coach -- at the end of October?
On a whole, he hasn't been awful this season. He also hasn't been great. He has now started 65 total games in his five-plus seasons, and it's clear he is not a difference-making franchise quarterback. So the Giants surely will use a premium draft pick next spring to replace him. (They wanted to do it this past spring, even though they were stuck with his contract for 2024.)
Under normal circumstances, the Giants can rather easily ditch Jones after 2024 -- $22.2 million dead money hit, with $19.4 million in salary cap savings. That's certainly better than keeping Jones at a $41.6 million cap number next season (compared to an insane $47.8 million cap hit this year).
It's pretty clear that third-year general manager Joe Schoen massively screwed up before the 2023 season by giving Jones what is essentially a two-year, $82 million contract, rather than franchise tagging him for one year at $32.4 million. That would've given Schoen an immediate escape hatch.
But here Schoen and the Giants are, stuck with Jones for the rest of 2024, after they tried hard to divorce him in this year's draft -- by trading up for Drake Maye. (Unfortunately for the Giants, they got four meaningless wins in their final seven games last season, blowing their shot at Maye and Jayden Daniels -- who is looking great so far in Washington, as Maye still sits in New England.)
Jones' $30 million salary for next season is currently completely non-guaranteed -- which is good for the Giants. But there's a catch: Jones has a $23 million injury guarantee -- $12 million of which kicks in as a full guarantee at the start of the 2025 league year on March 12.
So what does that mean? Well, if Jones suffers a serious injury -- like, say, another torn ACL -- that prevents him from passing a physical on March 12, he gets the $12 million. And if he can't pass a physical by Week 1, he gets the other $11 million.
Bottom line: If the Giants already know they're going to move on from Jones next offseason, they might sit him this season -- even if he's healthy -- so they can avoid that $12 million (and maybe the other $11 million, too, if he sustains an especially serious injury).
This would essentially mean quitting on the 2024 season, since for all his flaws, Jones is better than his backup, Drew Lock. But a midseason firing of coach Brian Daboll would open the door for Jones winding up in bubble wrap, because the Giants would've already made their decision on Daboll -- and wouldn't be hurting his chances of keeping his job by benching a healthy Jones.
The Giants, of course, are well aware of all this.
Jones was atrocious in Week 1 against the Vikings. The morning of their next game, the following Sunday in Washington, ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote a story -- not just a tweet, but a whole story -- highlighting the possibility that Jones could be put in bubble wrap at some point this season.
Let's just say Schefter doesn't wildly speculate about things like a team basically quitting on its season by benching a healthy quarterback.
Here's what Schefter wrote: "The Giants are not yet at that point with Jones. But if Jones doesn't play better -- he has just two touchdown passes in his past eight games -- it's expected that New York would have to consider a similar decision."
(He meant a similar decision to what other teams have done in recent seasons, with bubble wrapping a healthy quarterback for contract reasons.)
Jones has played better since that story -- losses to Washington and Dallas and a win over the hapless Browns -- but it's not like he has dominated.
So could Jones end up like recent bubble-wrapped quarterbacks (the Broncos' Russell Wilson, Colts' Matt Ryan, and Raiders' Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo)?
Sure, he could. And the Giants absolutely know this is a possibility. (Again, Schefter doesn't wildly speculate about these matters.)
For now, Jones is getting ready to play the 3-1 Seahawks in Seattle -- one of the NFL's most challenging road settings. And not only are the Seahawks second in Pro Football Focus' defensive ratings through four weeks, but Jones might not have his only feared weapon, prized rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who sustained a concussion Thursday night against the Cowboys.
Sure, the Giants have a distinct rest advantage, since Seattle lost Monday night in Detroit. But it might not matter one bit, if Nabers can't play.
This all seems like a recipe for a 1-4 start. Which would move Daboll closer to a midseason firing. And that, in turn, could clear the way for Jones being bubble wrapped.