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ExxonMobil Could Produce $165 Billion in Surplus Cash After Paying Dividends Through 2030


ExxonMobil Could Produce $165 Billion in Surplus Cash After Paying Dividends Through 2030

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has become a cash-gushing machine in recent years. The oil giant delivered industry-leading cash flow from operations of $17.6 million during the third quarter. It used that money to invest in growing its business while returning a substantial amount to shareholders.

The crux of that plan is to continue investing heavily in growing its business. Exxon anticipates its capital spending will be between $27 billion and $29 billion next year, rising to a range of $28 billion to $33 billion annually in the 2026-2030 timeframe. Overall, the oil company plans to pump $140 billion into major capital projects and its Permian Basin development program. The company expects these investments will generate returns of more than 30%. Exxon also expects to shave another $7 billion out of its structural costs over the next several years.

Those catalysts will grow the company's annual cash flow from operations from around $50 billion this year to roughly $80 billion by 2030. That assumes oil averages around $65 a barrel, which is below its recent price in the mid-$70s.

Given the upper limit on Exxon's planned capital spending range, the company's growing cash flow will translate into increased free cash flow. At $65 oil, Exxon would produce $165 billion in cumulative surplus free cash flow by 2030 above its current dividend level.

Exxon is currently one of the largest dividend payers in the world. It paid $4.3 billion in the second quarter, which was the second-largest dividend payout among members in the S&P 500 in that period. It has paid $12.3 billion in dividends through the first nine months of this year.

The company recently increased its payment for the 42nd year in a row. That's an elite record. Less than 4% of companies in the S&P 500 can make that claim. That steady upward trend seems almost certain to continue, given the company's expectation that it will produce $165 billion in surplus cash after paying dividends at the current level.

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