The Chicago Bears face off against the Minnesota Vikings in Monday Night Football action in Week 15.
These rivals are trending in opposite directions, which is why my Bears vs. Vikings predictions are betting on Minnesota to pull away at home.
The Minnesota Vikings are 11-2 and are fresh off a 42-21 victory against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears are on a seven-game losing streak and covered the spread just twice during that span.
To be fair, the Bears did push the Vikes into overtime before losing three weeks ago and also lost a close contest on the road in Detroit. However, they were down by 14+ points entering the fourth-quarter in both contests and only clawed back by being ultra-aggressive with a negative game script.
Caleb Williams played extremely well in that previous meeting, completing 32-of-47 passes for 340 yards. Unfortunately for the rookie quarterback, his play significantly drops off on the road and Minnesota's stop unit ranks third in the league in defensive EPA, so expect regression.
The Bears have also seen their defensive play fall off a cliff in recent weeks. They've struggled against the run all year, ranking 27th in defensive rush EPA, but their decline against the pass has been steep. Since Week 11, they are dead-last in defensive dropback EPA.
This team has looked flat under interim head coach Thomas Brown and it's fair to question just how motivated they'll be down the stretch. I'll push this spread below that key number of 7 and back the Vikes to roll at home.
Williams has rushed for more than 25 yards in seven of his last nine games. He's averaging 36.2 rushing yards per game during that span and had 33 yards on six carries vs the Vikings in Week 12.
This blitz-happy Brian Flores defense is fifth in the league in pressure rate while Chicago's offensive line is 22nd in pressure rate allowed. Expect Williams to be forced into plenty of scrambling situations when he feels the heat in the pocket.
Chicago ranks 28th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8) and Aaron Jones had 22 carries for 106 yards against them in their previous meeting.
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Chicago is 1-6 ATS on the first half spread in its last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Vikings.