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Following a long campaign cycle and day at the ballot box, Donald J. Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States. Things seemed pretty clear after he won the swing state of Pennsylvania, but a key victory in Wisconsin officially pushed him over the 270 electoral vote threshold. Republicans have also taken control of the Senate and could even secure a majority in the House as well.
The philosophy: "We made history for a reason tonight," he told supporters during a victory speech at the West Palm Beach Convention Center. "This will truly be the golden age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to 'Make America Great Again' for all Americans. Success will bring us together. We are going to start by all putting 'America First.' We have to fix it. I will not let you down. America's future will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than it has ever been before."
Trade comes first in Trump's economic playbook, which will introduce a series of broader and higher tariffs to spur a wave of reshoring and economic growth. The goal here is to protect and boost domestic manufacturing and use the accompanying tax revenues (or tariff revenue) to reduce the deficit. "Efficiency" measures will also target wasteful government spending, while Trump has campaigned on a series of targeted tax breaks for corporations and individuals. Cuts to energy costs that underpin the economy will additionally be pursued via the "drill, baby, drill" and "liquid gold" mantras, as well as efforts to assure lower interest rates and that the dollar remains the world's reserve currency.
Time horizon: As pointed out in yesterday's Wall Street Breakfast, investing in election odds and policies can be somewhat of gamble, though there are plenty of short-term gains and losses being seen in the markets. The so-called "Trump Trade" is boosting sectors like industrial and manufacturing, banking, defense and energy, and it has also propelled related stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Trump Media (DJT). Equity futures are soaring following the results, with contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) up by more than 1,200 points, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) inked a new all-time high above $75,000. (20 comments)