1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Paramount Pictures | NEW

$62M Domestic Opening Weekend

Paramount Pictures' video game threequel Sonic the Hedgehog 3 ran to the top this frame with an estimated $62M from 3,761 locations for a Per Screen Average of $16,485 (nearly doubling the PSA of Mufasa, which played on 339 more screens). Handicappers had it on-track for a $70M+ opening as of Friday/Saturday.

Although this performance is below our low-end estimates (others had it more conservatively between $55 and $60M), the film has been very well received with 86% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes alongside a 98% audience score, 5/5 stars on PostTrak for all audience segments (89% total positive, 75% definite recommend), and an "A" CinemaScore. The strong word of mouth should help Sonic continue to play big with families through the holidays, especially with only awards contenders aimed at older demographics (Nosferatu, A Complete Unknown) opening on Christmas Day.

Here's how the 3-Day looked, including $6.5M in Thursday previews...

Major markets that over-indexed include LA, Houston, Orlando, San Antonio, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Fresno. On the other end, under-indexing occurred in Toronto, Boston, Denver, Minneapolis, and Montreal. This indicates that severe cold weather might be a factor in Sonic 3 debuting under Sonic the Hedgehog 2's domestic bow of $72.1M, though higher than the first's $58M. The previous two films both opened in late-winter/early spring slots. Even so, some of the top theaters for Sonic 3 were in cold weather cities like NY, Baltimore, and Montreal. The #1 location domestically was AMC Burbank with $61K.

General audiences made up a majority of ticket buyers at 54% (vs 46% families), indicating the film's four quadrant appeal; opening weekend audiences included 43% in the 18-34 bracket, 37% <18, and 21% 35+. Comparatively, Sonic 2 had 59% families. This drop in the portion of Sonic 3's debut gross coming from families indicate that last-minute Christmas shopping may have taken a bite of ticket sales alongside cold the weather. The audience leaned heavily male at 59% over 41% female, although a mid-credits tag teases that a currently-in-development Sonic 4 might be reaching for that X chromosome audience.

Here's how demographics played out, with a strong 61% multi-cultural spread...

Sonic 3's international launch in most overseas territories will occur on Christmas Day proper. The previous two films have earned at least half their global haul internationally.

Walt Disney Pictures prequel Mufasa: The Lion King opened at #2, well below forecasts with an estimated $35M on 4,100 screens for an $8,537 PSA. That's lower than the original 1994 The Lion King's wide release bow of $40.8M, unadjusted for inflation. Here's how the 3-Day looked, including $3.3M in Thursday previews...

According to Deadline, 3D theaters overindexed with 18% of business, which bodes well for Avatar: Fire & Ash next Christmas. The South, South Central, and Mountain regions gave Mufasa the best play, with the top location being AMC Disney Springs at $60K. The audience split was the opposite of Sonic, veering female at 54% vs 46% male. Here's how the age data worked out...

Mufasa got a boost from international markets, grossing $87.2M in 52 territories to become the #1 global release of the weekend with $122.2M worldwide. Even when factoring in those global numbers, it's difficult to perceive this as anything better than a disappointment after the 2019 remake's $191.7M domestic launch and combined $433M WW. Mufasa opened either #1 or #1 non-local in all major markets, with the Top 5 consisting of China ($7.8M), France ($7.7M), Mexico ($7.1M), the UK ($5.5M), and Germany ($5M). It generated $8.2M across the IMAX world-wide network ($3.7M in North America), including $700K from China. Keep in mind, the 2019 Lion King took in $53.8M during its China launch.

So what happened here? With a budget reportedly twice that of Sonic 3, Mufasa certainly did not lack for House of Mouse marketing muscle plus the pedigree of director Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Moana, Encanto). Right out of the gate, reviews have been tepid-to-poor a 57% rating on RT, although the 2019 remake got worse with 51% approval. The remake was riding a wave of nostalgia bolstered by being a nearly shot-for-shot facsimile of the 2D animated original, while Mufasa had trouble standing out in a crowded holiday market. As the studio learned previously with Alice Through the Looking Glass, a billion dollar grosser doesn't guarantee a hit sequel, especially considering the novelty of seeing these Disney animated classics rendered real is now around a decade old.

On a more positive note, Mufasa's PostTrak was 5/5 with parents and 4.5/5 with kids, RT audience score of 89%, and CinemaScore was an "A-," which means it might pick up steam over Christmas... but the momentum isn't great. Luckily Disney still has Moana 2 making up for the deficit with another $13.1M in its fourth weekend for a domestic cume of $359.1M and WW of $790.2M. The company also crossed the $5B mark globally ($5.06B), the first time any studio has done this since 2019.

Angel Studios' Homestead took the #5 spot with $6,066,710 million from 1,886 locations for a $3,217 PSA. Curiously, the apocalyptic film earned a "B" CinemaScore, low for a faith-based film. This might be due to the fact that it serves as something of a pilot for a streaming series and is not a self-contained story.

A24's Oscar hopeful The Brutalist did a limited launch to the tune of $266,791 on 4 screens, selling out close to 30 showtimes in New York and Los Angeles. That's a PSA of $66,698K, one of the biggest of the year -- behind only Anora at $91K and Kinds of Kindness at $75K. Adrian Brody stars as a Holocaust survivor attempting to capture the American Dream. The 3.5hr epic is the first in decades to be shot in the VistaVision format, playing in both IMAX and 70mm engagements, and will remain in these two major cities until it expands wider in January.